It’s happening right under our noses, but few of us know it. The newest commercial parking facilities are being designed with autonomous cars in mind — the ones that drive themselves. Some developers are even going so far as to explore ways to repurpose existing parking garages. The question follows: how could autonomous vehicles change residential real estate? Will it render the two-car garage obsolete and increase livable square footage and home values?

 

Forbes’ Justin Thompson explored this in his article The Value of Your Home Could Get a Big Twist from Autonomous Cars, where he discusses things like how, after dropping its passengers off, the driverless car could simply (1) return to where the trip originated, (2) circle the neighborhood and wait to be called back, (3) head off to a remote parking spot for a while, or (4) just wait for another passenger, like a taxi or an Uber might do.

 

So if people are presented with an autonomous, on-demand vehicle service might they simply opt out of car ownership? Thompson says proponents point to the success of current ride-sharing platforms and the behavior of younger generations as evidence that this future is already unfolding.

 

The appeal is, of course, that autonomous vehicle ride sharing could very well offer the same mobility as car ownership without the major capital outlay expenses like insurance, maintenance, and depreciation.

 

For real estate purposes, a decrease in car ownership would likely translate to a decrease in the need for garage space. No big deal? Think again. In congested metropolitan areas, such as Los Angeles, where square footage sells for a premium, it would be a huge deal (remember– appraisers do not include garage space in a home’s total square footage). When you figure the current average price per square foot for a residential dwelling in LA County is between $400 and $600, it’s an in-your-face proposition. Thompson explains, “A 100-square-foot increase in the size of a home (which is the difference in size between a typical two-car garage and a typical one-car garage) would translate to an increase of roughly $40,000 to $60,000 in home value for a home in Los Angeles County, California. A shift of that magnitude could well incentivize builders to devote less square footage to garage use and more to the livable area of the house.”

 

He goes on to imagine the economic effects of this, explaining how an increase in home values would likely lead to a hike in property taxes while local government could expect to see an increase in permitting fees for all those garage conversion projects.

 

It’s anybody’s ball game whether autonomous vehicles will be adopted and integrated into our society. But it’s fun to think of how very differently both our homes and our lives might be affected.

 

 

Source: Forbes, TBWS

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Big demand. Small inventory. Spring homebuyers are pounding the pavement at a furious pace, but the pickings are getting ever slimmer, according to news reports.

 

Spring is traditionally the busiest time of year to buy a home, but this year listings are getting snapped with lightning speed as bidding wars have become par for the course. According to an article in NBC News, home prices have now surpassed their last peak, and at the entry level, where demand is highest, sellers are firmly in the driver’s seat.

 

The article cites a Realtor in Burbank, CA, who says, ”I’ve been selling real estate for 25 years and this is the strongest seller’s market I have ever seen in my entire real estate career. A lot of our sellers are optimistically pricing their homes in today’s market, and I have to say in most cases we’re getting the home sold anyway.”

 

As an example, NBC News reported how a three-bedroom, two-bathroom, 1,240-square-foot home in Burbank offered for $789,000 (considered an entry-level home in the LA market) had three offers before the first open house Sunday, drawing more than 100 potential but weary buyers.

 

As is customary in crazy markets like this, most of the listings are intentionally listed a bit low to garner attention. Then the bidding frenzy ensues, often getting a dozen or more offers on one property. According to the article, more homes came on the market in March, but fierce demand made “sold” signs go up quickly. “At the end of the month, the supply of homes for sale nationally was down 6.6 percent compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Unsold inventory is a slim 3.8-month supply. A balanced market between buyers and sellers has a five-to-six-month supply. Properties sold in March were on the market for an average 34 days, down from 45 in February and 47 in March 2016.”

 

All cash offers and contingency removals are common trends because, in such a hot market, homes are appraising well below the sale price, making it even harder for first-time, mortgage-dependent buyers to succeed.

 

All this has caused home prices to hit new peaks each month, with prices nationally up 5.7 percent in February year over year, according to Black Knight Financial Services. Washington, Oregon, and Colorado are seeing the biggest price gains, as buyers flee high prices in California.

 

Big cities are the all-hat-no-cattle losers, however. Real estate brokerage Redfin studied which markets had the most people searching for homes outside their city. San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York were the biggest losers. “Fast-growing coastal cities may be generating the high-paying jobs, but they haven’t created enough budget-friendly housing to keep pace,” said Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist. “The price of real estate and desire for homeownership is compelling many to uproot and seek housing in more affordable communities.”

 

 

Source: NBC News, Redfin, TBWS

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

New home sales get a bump despite mortgage rate increase from CNBC.

 

undefined

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter
by | Categories: main | No Comments

Although the Nasdaq Composite Index set a new all-time high last Wednesday, the three major stock indexes finished the week lower amid escalating trade tensions primarily between the U.S. and China and the U.S. and the European Union.  The Trump Administration wants to level the playing field when it comes to trade and tariffs by negotiating better deals to protect American workers and the economy.  U.S. tariffs are among the lowest in the world and in our nation’s history.  U.S. trade policy has long favored lower tariffs and fewer restrictions on the movement of goods and services across international borders while our trading partners have been more restrictive.  The U.S. is currently running the following trade deficits:

 

China – $636 billion traded with a $375 billion deficit.

Mexico – $557 billion traded with a $71 billion deficit.

Japan – $204 billion traded with a $69 billion deficit.

Germany – $171 billion traded with a $65 billion deficit.

Canada – $582 billion traded with an $18 billion deficit.

 

In response to all of the tariff and trade war talk, longer-term bond yields slipped marginally lower resulting in relatively stable mortgage rates.

 

There were several housing-related reports released this past week.  Last Monday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB) measuring home builder sentiment was reported to have slipped two points to 68 in June.  A reading above 50 is considered to indicate positive sentiment.

 

Yet, June’s decline was attributed to soaring lumber prices that have added almost $9,000 to the average price of a new single-family home since January 2017.  Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, commented “Improved economic growth, continued job creation and solid housing demand should spur additional single-family construction in the months ahead.  However, builders do need access to lumber and other construction materials at reasonable costs in order to provide homes at competitive price points, particularly for the entry-level market where inventory is most needed.”

 

 

Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Housing Starts increased 5.0% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.350 million, exceeding the consensus forecast of 1.323 million.  However, Building Permits declined 4.6% to 1.301 million falling below the consensus estimate of 1.343 million.  Permits are a leading indicator of housing market strength and were lower in May for both single-family units (-2.2%) and multi-unit dwellings (-8.8%).  This suggests we may see some weakness in the June Housing Starts report.

­­

Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported sales of Existing Homes declined 0.4% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million.  This was slightly below the consensus forecast of 5.55 million.  The median existing home price for all housing types jumped 4.9% to an all-time high of $264,800 – the 75th straight month of year-over-year gains.  Existing home inventory for sale at the end of May rose 2.8% to 1.85 million, but this is 6.1% lower than the same period a year ago.  Unsold inventory is currently at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales rate compared to a usual 6.0-month supply associated with a more balanced market.  The song remains the same…limited home inventory coupled with rising prices and mortgage rates is hampering affordability, especially for first-time home buyers.

 

Wednesday, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey showed an increase in mortgage applications.  The MBA reported their overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index (application volume) rose 5.1% during the week ended June 15, 2018.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.0% from the week prior while the Refinance Index increased by 6.0% from a week earlier.

 

Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity increased to 36.8% from 35.6% of total applications from the prior week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 7.0% from 6.8% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a conforming loan balance remained unchanged at 4.83% with points decreasing to 0.48 from 0.53.

 

For the week, the FNMA 4.0% coupon bond gained 9.3 basis points to close at $101.734 while the 10-year Treasury yield decreased 2.36 basis points to end at 2.9004%.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 509.59 points to close at 24,580.89.  The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 53.56 points to close at 7,692.82.  The S&P 500 Index dropped 24.78 points to close at 2,754.88.  Year to date on a total return basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 0.56%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has gained 11.44%, and the S&P 500 Index has advanced 3.04%.

 

This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate increased to 4.70% from 4.65%; the 15-year mortgage rate rose to 4.15% from 4.11%; the 5/1 ARM mortgage rate increased to 3.99% from 3.95% while the FHA 30-year rate rose to 4.42% from 4.38%.  Jumbo 30-year rates increased to 4.73% from 4.68%.

 

Economic Calendar – for the Week of June 25, 2018

 

Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

 

 

­­­­

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart – FNMA 30-Year 4.0% Coupon Bond

 

The FNMA 30-year 4.0% coupon bond ($101.734, +9.3 bp) traded within a far narrower 28.1 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of 101.859 on Tuesday and a weekly intraday low of $101.578 on Thursday before closing the week at $101.734 on Friday.

 

The bond traded along a convergence between the 25-day and 50-day moving averages (MAs).  These MAs act as both short-term support and resistance.  Should the 25-day MA cross above the 50-day MA, it would signal market strength and a buy signal likely resulting in a slight improvement in mortgage rates.  However, technical resistance is also found at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at $101.988 so any upward move will have to contend with this layer of resistance plus that from the 100-day MA at $102.087.  These levels may temper any upward move resulting in stable rates.

 

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

In addition to some generally positive economic news, there were three major events affecting the financial markets this past week.  There was an historic initial summit between the U.S. and North Korea over denuclearizing the Korean peninsula; a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed; and further threats of a trade war between China and the U.S.  The three major stock indexes ended “mixed” for the week after the Dow Jones Industrials slid lower on Friday erasing its weekly gains.  The Nasdaq Composite Index managed to set a new record high during the week before falling back on Friday while the S&P 500 ended minimally higher.

 

The stock and bond markets reacted somewhat negatively to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.  Fed officials decided to raise the federal funds rate by another 0.25% as widely expected, but the markets retreated after policymakers provided a more hawkish view for future rate hikes with greater expectations for a total of four rate hikes in 2018, rather than three.

 

Tuesday, the Labor Department reported consumer inflation in May rose 0.2% and had reached 2.8% on a year-over-year basis, its highest level since 2011.  However, most of the increase in inflation is attributed to the rise in oil prices, and core inflation (excluding food and energy costs) remained close to the Fed’s target of 2%.  Thursday, Retail Sales provided an upside surprise with retail sales excluding automobiles increasing 0.9% in May versus expectations for a 0.5% gain.  Friday, the Trump administration declared it would follow through with an earlier warning to implement tariffs on imports of $50 billion worth of goods from China in response to intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers.  China quickly responded with proposed tariffs on

$50 billion worth of U.S. goods including beef, cars, poultry, and tobacco.  Hopefully, these tariff announcements are nothing more than strategizing for a negotiated solution that will avoid a full-blown trade war that would end with negative consequences for the world’s two largest economies.

 

There were two mortgage-related reports released this past week.  Tuesday, CoreLogic released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for March 2018.  The report showed the number of mortgage loans 30 days or more past due declined from 4.8% to 4.3%.  The serious delinquency rate, defined as those loans 90 days or more past due, dropped to 1.9% in March, the lowest delinquency rate for the month of March since 2007 when it was 1.5%.  The serious delinquency rate a year ago for March was 2.1%.

 

The foreclosure inventory rate, a measure of the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6% for March – a level that has been holding since August 2017 and the lowest level since June 2007.  Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, remarked

“Unemployment and lack of home equity are two factors that can lead to borrowers defaulting on their mortgages.  Unemployment is at the lowest level in 18 years, and for the first quarter, the CoreLogic Equity Report revealed record levels of home equity growth with equity per owner up $16,300 on average for the year ending March 2018.”  This is certainly good news for the housing industry.

 

 

Wednesday, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey showed a decrease in mortgage applications.  The MBA reported their overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index (application volume) fell 1.5% during the week ended June 8, 2018.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index declined 2.0% from the week prior while the Refinance Index also decreased by 2.0% from a week earlier.

 

Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 35.6% of total applications from the prior week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 6.8% from 7.1% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a conforming loan balance increased to 4.83% from 4.75% with points increasing to 0.53 from 0.46.

 

For the week, the FNMA 4.0% coupon bond gained 4.7 basis points to close at $101.641 while the 10-year Treasury yield decreased 2.6 basis points to end at 2.924%.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 226.05 points to close at 25,090.48.  The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 100.87 points to close at 7,746.38.  The S&P 500 Index added 0.63 of one point to close at 2,779.66.  Year to date on a total return basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 1.50%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has added 12.21%, and the S&P 500 Index has advanced 3.96%.

 

This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate decreased to 4.65% from 4.68%; the 15-year mortgage rate was unchanged at 4.11%; the 5/1 ARM mortgage rate increased to 3.95% from 3.94% while the FHA 30-year rate fell to 4.38% from 4.42%.  Jumbo 30-year rates decreased to 4.68% from 4.70%.

 

Economic Calendar – for the Week of June 18, 2018

 

Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

 

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart – FNMA 30-Year 4.0% Coupon Bond

 

The FNMA 30-year 4.0% coupon bond ($101.641, +4.7 bp) traded within a wider 53.1 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of 101.797 on Friday and a weekly intraday low of $101.266 on Wednesday before closing the week at $101.641 on Friday.

 

The bond fell to its secondary support level at $101.234 during the first half of the week before bouncing and moving higher just above primary short-term support at $101.586 by the end of the week.  There was a new buy signal on Thursday from a slow stochastic crossover plus the bond is neither overbought nor oversold so we should see prices rise into overhead resistance levels this coming week.  If the bond is able to break above overhead resistance, it should lead to stable to slightly lower mortgage rates in the coming week.

 

 

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

It’s terrifying but it’s true. One minute you think you own a property and the next, it has been recorded in someone else’s name. Fraud in real estate is alive and well, with authorities all over the country saying homes are illegally taken without owners’ consent.

 

Because of the ever-growing rise of technology, it is now easier than ever to create fraudulent documents that can be easily recorded in public records making your house appear that it was sold and now belongs to someone else.

 

In a Texas case, a deed turned out to be a forgery perpetrated by a daring group of rogue businessmen who claimed ownership of more than 70 vacant houses and lots across Houston. These con artists allegedly made millions by reselling them to unwitting buyers, according to a Houston Chronicle analysis of pending civil and criminal lawsuits.

The players in this massive swindle simply strolled into the Harris County Civil Courthouse with fake deeds bearing the freshly minted signatures of long-dead men, faked notaries’ seals and other blatantly false claims to seize and sell others’ property, according to the Chronicle. The consequences of this fraud — carried out between 2002 and 2008 — continue to affect hundreds of people in some of the city’s humblest neighborhoods and much of the mess remains unresolved.

 

Your best defenses against fraud of this kind are awareness and diligence, not permitting yourself to go on autopilot. The most straightforward way to make sure you are not a victim of this sort of fraud is to check public records regularly, looking for changes. Every city has a place where the public can go to search for information on a property. Property records are maintained at either the county courthouse, county recorder, city hall or another city or county department. Many public offices are staffed by knowledgeable personnel ready to help you find property deeds and encumbrances.

 

Telltale signs something is amiss would be things like getting mail addressed to a different name at your address or seeing that mail you normally might receive regarding your home is no longer arriving in your mailbox. Any new deed recorded in the public records triggers a slew of mail advertisements, so they are a great warning sign that something is up.

 

Another sign is sudden unsolicited interest from prospective real estate agents or home service-related companies. If anything sends up a red flag, go online and check for changes. Then check it again a few weeks later to confirm.

Vacation homeowners will need to be extra-vigilant, since these sorts of properties are especially vulnerable to fraud. Find a neighbor, or hire a reputable property manager, to regularly check and report on your property. Also, make sure to have mail related to that property forwarded to you, and be concerned if the flow stops unexpectedly.

 

Most times there will be nothing amiss regarding the ownership of your home. But it’s much easier to take steps to avoid a problem of this proportion than to spend a lot of time and money fixing it.

 

Source: Sun Sentinel, Houstong Chronicle, TBWS

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

There are few more interesting real estate investments than home flipping — seeing an older or run-down piece of property find a fairy godmother to make it beautiful again and then being sold in several months’ time. According to a report in Realtor.com, home flipping activity is increasing across the country, as more investors look to capitalize on the run-up in home prices.

 

There’s limited opportunity to flip houses now: Sidney Torres from CNBC.

 

On par with the highest home-flipping rate since the first quarter of 2012, nearly 50,000 single-family homes and condos were flipped in the first quarter of this year, comprising 6.9 percent of all home sales, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ Q1 2018 U.S. Home Flipping Report.

 

Even profits were up. with flips in the first quarter of this year selling at an average gross profit of $69,500, up from $66,287 a year ago, the highest average gross profit for flips since ATTOM began tracking such data in 2000. A flip is defined as a property that has been sold more than once in a 12-month period.

 

The data company’s senior VP Daren Blomquist is cited in the report saying, “The 2018 housing market is a double-edged sword for home flippers. Rapidly rising home prices boosted by low inventory of homes for sale or for rent are padding profits at the back end when flippers sell. But those same market realities are eroding flipping returns at the front end by forcing flippers to pay more to acquire homes to flip.”

 

Memphis, TN won the prize for the highest flip rate of the 136 metros with 15.1 percent, followed by Albany, Ore. (11.7 percent); East Stroudsburg, Pa. (11.4 percent); York, Pa. (10.4 percent); and Merced, Calif. (10.3 percent).

 

 

Source: NAR, TBWS

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

The major stock market indexes made a solid advance during the week amid strong jobs and economic data resulting in lower bond prices and rising yields.  Tuesday, the ISM Non-manufacturing Index showed a greater than forecast expansion in the services sector with a reading of 58.6 in May from 56.8 in April.  This increase matched the rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index for May, suggesting second quarter GDP growth will show a noticeable increase over GDP growth in the first quarter.

 

Also on Tuesday, the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed there were 6.698 million job openings available in April with only 6.4 million available workers to fill them.  This is the second month in a row where there were more job vacancies than available hires, a phenomenon the American economy has never experienced before until March and April of this year.  Although this situation should create a demand for higher wages, average hourly earnings only increased 2.7% annualized in May, up one-tenth of a point from April.  However, you can bet the Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage growth going forward, and there is no doubt that they will raise interest rates for the second time this year when they announce their rate-hike decision this Wednesday.

 

There was one housing related report released this past week.  Tuesday, CoreLogic reported their latest Home Price Index (HPI) and Forecast for April 2018 showing home prices increased by 1.2% month-over-month in April and by 6.9% year-over-year from April 2017.

 

CoreLogic is forecasting their national HPI will continue to increase 5.3% on a year-over-year basis from April 2018 to April 2019 and will rise another 0.2% for May 2018.  Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic Chief Economist, remarked “The best antidote for rising home prices is additional supply.  New construction has failed to keep up with and meet new housing growth or replace existing inventory.  More construction of for-sale and rental housing will alleviate housing cost pressures.”

 

Analyzing home values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing inventory indicated 40% of metropolitan areas had an overvalued housing market, 28% were undervalued, and 32% were considered at value as of April 2018.  When evaluating only the top 50 markets, 52% were overvalued, 14% were undervalued and 34% were at-value.

 

 

From the mortgage industry, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey showed an increase in mortgage applications.  The MBA reported their overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index (application volume) increased 4.1% during the week ended June 1, 2018.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 4.0% from the week prior while the Refinance Index also increased by 4.0% from a week earlier.

 

Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity increased to 35.6% from 35.3% of total applications from the prior week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased to 7.1% from 6.7% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a conforming loan balance decreased to 4.75% from 4.84% with points decreasing to 0.46 from 0.47.

 

For the week, the FNMA 4.0% coupon bond lost 34.4 basis points to close at $101.594 while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 4.8 basis points to end at 2.950%.  The three major stock indexes advanced during the week.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 681.32 points to close at 25,316.53.  The NASDAQ Composite Index added 91.18 points to close at 7,645.51.  The S&P 500 Index added 44.41 points to close at 2,779.03.  Year to date on a total return basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 2.42%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has added 10.75%, and the S&P 500 Index has advanced 3.94%.

 

This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate increased to 4.68% from 4.60%; the 15-year mortgage rate rose to 4.11% from 4.04%; the 5/1 ARM mortgage rate increased to 3.94% from 3.93% while the FHA 30-year rate climbed to 4.42% from 4.38%.  Jumbo 30-year rates increased to 4.70% from 4.66%.

 

Economic Calendar – for the Week of June 11, 2018

 

Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart – FNMA 30-Year 4.0% Coupon Bond

 

The FNMA 30-year 4.0% coupon bond ($101.594, -34.4 bp) traded within a narrower 42.2 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of 101.938 on Monday and a weekly intraday low of $101.516 on Thursday before closing the week at $101.594 on Friday.

 

The bond fell from its position sitting on the 50-day moving average (MA) and continued to slide lower during the week to end just below the 25-day MA.  Technically, the last sell signal from May 31 is still in effect and since the bond is still not “oversold,” there is some continuing risk for further mortgage bond price erosion this week.  A continuing price move toward the next support level will result in a slight increase in mortgage rates in the coming week.

 

 

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

The major stock market indexes were “mixed” for the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average modestly lower while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes posted moderate gains.  Early in the holiday-shortened week, investors had to navigate political unrest in Italy and Spain as well as news of U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada, the European Union, and Mexico that sent stock prices lower and bond prices higher.  On Tuesday, the turmoil in Italy triggered such a demand for safe-haven securities that a rally in U.S. Treasuries sent the 10-year Treasury note’s yield to its largest one-day decline since June 2016 when Great Britain voted to leave the European Union.

 

However, the stock market bounced back on Friday following news that the summit with North Korea is back on as originally scheduled for June 12, and on a strong Employment Situation report for May.  The Employment Report showed a better than forecast increase in nonfarm payrolls (+223,000) and a lower than expected unemployment rate of 3.8%, an 18-year low.  Average hourly earnings matched expectations showing only moderate wage inflation with a month-over-month increase of 0.3%.

 

There were a couple of housing related reports released this past week.  Thursday, the National Association of Realtors released their Pending Home Sales Index data for April.  This forward-looking indicator based on contract signings showed an unexpected 1.3% decline to 106.4 in April from an upwardly revised 107.8 in March.  The Index was lower on an annualized basis (by 2.1%) for the fourth straight month.

 

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, had this to say about the report: “Pending sales slipped in April and continued to stay within the same narrow range with little signs of breaking out… the underlying sales data, reveals that the demand for buying a home is very robust.  Listings are typically going under contract in under a month, and instances of multiple offers are increasingly common and pushing prices higher…For now, the economy is very healthy, job growth is holding steady and wages are slowly rising.  However, it all comes down to overall supply.  If more new and existing homes are listed for sale, it would allow home prices to moderate enough to stave off inflationary pressures and higher rates.”

 

From the mortgage industry, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey continued to show a drop in mortgage applications.  The MBA reported their overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index (application volume) decreased 2.9% during the week ended May 25, 2018.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 2.0% from the week prior while the Refinance Index decreased by 5.0% to its lowest level since December 2000.

 

Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity fell to 35.3% from 35.7% of total applications from the prior week.  The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 6.7% from 6.8% of total applications.  According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a conforming loan balance decreased to 4.84% from 4.86% with points decreasing to 0.47 from 0.52.

 

For the week, the FNMA 4.0% coupon bond gained 7.9 basis points to close at $101.938 while the 10-year Treasury yield decreased 2.9 basis points to end at 2.902%.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 117.88 points to close at 24,635.21.  The NASDAQ Composite Index added 120.48 points to close at 7,554.33.  The S&P 500 Index gained 13.29 points to close at 2,734.62.  Year to date on a total return basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 0.34%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has added 9.43%, and the S&P 500 Index has advanced 2.28%.

 

This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate decreased to 4.60% from 4.61%; the 15-year mortgage rate was unchanged at 4.04%; the 5/1 ARM mortgage rate decreased to 3.93% from 3.95% while the FHA 30-year rate fell to 4.38% from 4.40%.  Jumbo 30-year rates increased to 4.66% from 4.65%.

 

Economic Calendar – for the Week of June 4, 2018

 

Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.

Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart – FNMA 30-Year 4.0% Coupon Bond

 

The FNMA 30-year 4.0% coupon bond ($101.938, +7.9 bp) traded within a narrower 75.0 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of 102.578 on Tuesday and a weekly intraday low of $101.828 on Friday before closing the week at $101.938 on Friday.  After moving above resistance at the 50-day moving average (MA) and running into the 100-day MA on Tuesday, the bond traded back to the 50-day MA by Friday’s close.  This action resulted in a new sell signal from a negative stochastic crossover from an “overbought” position.  As a result, we could see a move down toward the 25-day MA resulting in lower bond prices and slightly higher mortgage rates.

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

The dictionary’s definition of the word incentive reads “a thing that motivates or encourages one to do something.” It’s also a word used by new home builders to encourage buyers to use their preferred lender by tying a certain amount of “play money” to the equation. These are funds can be applied toward the buyer’s design center choices for upgrades (higher-end appliances, hardwood floors, etc.) or toward financing, such as closing costs or a loan rate buy-down. While builder incentives are nothing new, it has always been a touchy subject for buyers, who often walk in to a builder’s subdivision pre-approved by their own lender.

 

The first thing new home buyers should understand is that they are always free to use whichever lender they choose —be it their credit union, their bank, or even their cousin who happens to be a mortgage guy. That’s the law. If they do decide not to use the builder’s lender, however, the builder is not bound to offer incentive monies.

 

Exceptions do exist. If the builder’s lender cannot provide the same product as the outside lender, OR if the builder can’t broker the deal through the buyer’s desired lender, the incentive may still apply.

 

It’s wise to look at both sides of this equation. Why do builders sometimes ‘sweeten the pot,’ so to speak, for buyers to use their own preferred lender? For one, builders take a lot of risk in building a home and then tying it up until close of escrow, which may take up to 6 months after their buyers sign on the dotted line. Pre-approvals do fall through, and it’s a double whammy if this happens at the last minute to a house customized to their buyers’ tastes. Multiply this risk for a subdivision of potentially hundreds of homes, and you might get the picture.

 

An in-house lender (one owned by the same entity that owns the builder), whose only priority is to its builder accounts, must not only get buyers pre-approved in a timely fashion for the house construction to proceed. It must also educate the builder on whether it is prudent for them to take a particular home or home site off the market for what may be an extended period of time. This is the “well-oiled machine” of sales, construction, lender, and design center personnel, all of whom meet regularly to track progress on every facet of the home buying and home building process. Their goal is a seamless build as well as a seamless closing, handing buyers the keys once their names are on record without having to “carry” the house a day longer than necessary —hopefully just in time for the moving van to arrive. But an outside lender will be just as concerned about accountability, as their credibility is on the line as well and a seamless close can mean future business for them, possibly even referrals. And unlike the in-house lender, they are capable of refinancing the loan down the road if warranted. Outside lenders can often be more competitive with pricing, potentially saving borrowers thousands of dollars over the life of the loan, freeing them up to buy their own upgrades after close of escrow.

 

There is no doubt about it. Tying thousands of dollars in incentives to using an in-house lender gives buyers little reason to shop around. However, it’s prudent to take note of the builder’s lender’s rates and loan programs and check to see if they are competitive. Do an apples-to-apples comparison on their loan with outside lenders.

 

Builder incentives can get you that surround sound system you’ve always dreamed of without having to put out any long-term money up front, but in the end anything you spend over and above the incentive monies will be added to the loan principal unless, of course, you don’t pay for it outright. This usually works out well for cash-strapped buyers who have holes in their pockets for a while after the move-in.

 

What can buyers do to feel reassured that they are getting the best deal? They can “shop” their loan and make a decision based upon their own bottom line. If they are already pre-approved by their own lender when they walk into a builder’s sales office and are happy with that loan program, they can either forgo the builder’s incentives altogether or they can try to make the builder’s lender to match the program and rate they already have. Your mortgage payment is something you’ll be living with for a good, long time. So whichever lender you choose, we think they will agree that it’s always best to be aware of all your options.

 

 

Source: TBWS


 All infor

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter