What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 6, 2011

Sep 6, 2011

Eurozone debt concerns resurfaceMortgage markets improved last week on a weak jobs report, expectation for new market stimulus, growing evidence of a global economic slowdown. Rates were especially volatile, too, with the long Labor Day Weekend looming.

Overall, conforming mortgage rates in Virginia improved for the first time in 3 weeks. On a product-by-product basis, though, mortgage rates are faring differently.

According to the Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rate survey, last week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged but the 15-year fixed rate mortgage and the 5-year ARM fell.

The 5-year ARM is at a new all-time low for qualified borrowers.

A drop in 5-year ARM rates throughout Richmond without a corresponding drop in 30-year fixed mortgage rates signals that markets expect the economy to stabilize over the long-term but with weakness in the near-term. The 5-year ARM’s ultra-low rates suggests marked weakness ahead.

The 5-year ARM may get another boost this week, too.

While U.S. markets were closed for Labor Day, Eurozone nations were hit with new wave of sovereign debt concern, this time centered on Italy. Greece, Portugal and Ireland have already been the subject of debt default debate this year. Italy’s inclusion hit equity market hard and safe-haven buying re-commenced.

This should give a good start to mortgage rates this week. Look for rates to start lower. That’s not to say, however, that they’ll finish the week lower. With very little economic data due for release, markets will move on momentum and momentum can change in a flash.

Date Time (ET) Statistic For Market Expects Prior
09/07/11 02:00:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book Sep
09/08/11 08:30:00 AM Initial Claims 09/03/11 400K 409K
09/08/11 08:30:00 AM Trade Balance Jul -$51.5B -$53.1B
09/08/11 03:00:00 PM Consumer Credit Jul $5.0B $15.5B
09/09/11 10:00:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.70% 0.60%

The two biggest potential market movers both come Thursday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in Minnesota at 1:00 PM, and United States President Barack Obama addresses the nation at 7:00 PM. Both speeches are highly anticipated and should cause markets to move.

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