What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 12, 2013Mortgage bond prices ended last week a little higher than a the start of the week, resulting in slightly lower mortgage rates.  According to CoreLogic, U.S. home prices increased at their fastest pace since February 2006. Mortgage rates rose incrementally, and the Weekly Jobless Claims report came in lower than the expected 339,000 at 333,000 new jobless claims.

The four week rolling average for new jobless claims decreased by 6250 to 335,000. This was the lowest reading for the four-week rolling average since November 2007.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates brought not-so-good news; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 4.40 percent, while the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 3.43 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose by one basis point to 3.19 percent.

What’s Coming Up

This week’s economic news includes the federal budget for Monday. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will be reported on Tuesday; the Producers Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI will be out on Wednesday.

Economic Calendar, August 12 – August 16, 2013

econ08122013

Mortgage rates remain very attractive compared to historical levels and it is still a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance.

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Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week August 5 2013Mortgage rates were basically flat ahe end of last week.  The last three days of the week provided only a glimpse of market volatility.

The FOMC statement indicated that the Federal Reserve has not set a date for rolling back its quantitative easing program and ADP reported more private sector jobs added than expected.

While weekly jobless claims were fewer than expected, the national unemployment rate remained elevated:

Consumer confidence dropped in July to a reading of 80.3 as compared to a revised reading of 82.1 in June. Higher mortgage rates and stubbornly high unemployment rates likely contributed to a cooling of consumer enthusiasm.

What’s Coming Up This Week

The economic calendar is quiet this week, but will the markets still be volatile, especially with three Treasury bond auctions taking place:

econ08052013

The future is uncertain, continued volatility is likely;  now is a great time to take advantage of mortgage rates at these low levels.

 

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Mortgage rates improved last week.  The Fed’s release of the minutes for the June FOMC meeting was the most noteworthy economic event last week; the minutes repeated the Fed’s recent statement concerning the wind-down of its current monetary easing policy.  The minutes indicated that about half of meeting participants wanted to end the quantitative easing (QE) policy by year end, while “many others” preferred to end the program in 2014.  This split suggests that days are numbered for the Fed’s monthly purchases of bonds.

It remains unknown whether the bond market will continue to build on last weeks improvements or take a turn for the worse this week.  Financial markets and interest rates are expected to remain volatile throughout this busy week.  Fed Chairman Bernake is scheduled to deliver the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins report on monetary policy on Wednesday and Thursday:

 

Time (ET)

Statistic

For

Actual

Market Expects

Prior

08:30:00 AM

Retail Sales

Jun

0.40%

0.70%

0.50%

08:30:00 AM

Retail Sales ex-auto

Jun

0.00%

0.40%

0.30%

08:30:00 AM

CPI

Jun

0.30%

0.10%

08:30:00 AM

Core CPI

Jun

0.20%

0.20%

09:15:00 AM

Industrial Production

Jun

0.30%

0.00%

09:15:00 AM

Capacity Utilization

Jun

77.70%

77.60%

08:30:00 AM

Housing Starts

Jun

958K

914K

08:30:00 AM

Building Permits

Jun

1000K

974K

02:00:00 PM

Fed’s Beige Book

Jul

NA

NA

08:30:00 AM

Initial Claims

07/13/13

348K

360K

10:00:00 AM

Philadelphia Fed

Jul

5.3

12.5

10:00:00 AM

Leading Indicators

Jun

0.30%

0.10%

01:15:00 PM

10-year Treasury TIPS Auction

 

In this volatile rate environment  be careful when making rate decisions and to lock if the numbers make sense as mortgage rates are still at historic lows.

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week July 8 2013

Financial markets remain extremely volatile, a trend that is expected to continue.  Last week mortgage rates were significantly higher than those the at the close of the week prior.

The most meaningful economic reports of the week will be on the last two days of the week with Jobless Claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.  Also of importance this week are the Treasury auctions with this week’s cycle being the more relevant 3, 10, and 30yr terms.  That gives Tuesday a bit more bite, at least in the afternoon (because without the 3yr auction,

Date

Time (ET)

Statistic

For

Market Expects

Prior

07/08/13

03:00:00 PM

Consumer Credit

May

$13.2B

$11.1B

07/09/13

01:15:00 PM

3-year Treasury Note Auction

07/10/13

01:15:00 PM

10-year Treasury Note Auction

07/10/13

02:00:00 PM

FOMC Minutes

06/19/13

07/11/13

08:30:00 AM

Initial Claims

07/06/13

345K

343K

07/11/13

01:15:00 PM

30-year Treasury Bond Auction

07/12/13

08:30:00 AM

PPI

Jun

0.30%

0.50%

07/12/13

08:30:00 AM

Core PPI

Jun

0.10%

0.10%

07/12/13

09:55:00 AM

Mich Sentiment

Jul

84.8

84.1

Mortgage rates remain at historically low levels but are continuing to rise.  Now is a great time to consider purchasing a home.

 

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What's Ahead This Week - June 17, 2013Last week’s news was relatively quiet with no data significant to the mortgage lending released until Wednesday, when the federal government announced a $138 billion budget deficit for May.

According to the U.S. Treasury this figure is 11 percent higher than for May of 2012, but the federal budget is expected to come in with less than a -$1 trillion deficit for the 2013 fiscal year, which runs from October to September.

The Treasury estimates that the 2013 budget deficit will come in at approximately -$642 billion, well below fiscal 2012’s deficit of -$1.1 trillion. The federal budget has been running deficits over -$1 trillion since 2008.

Employment Market Continues To Strengthen

On Thursday, the Weekly Jobless Claims report brought good news; jobless claims fell from the prior week’s 346,000 jobless claims to 334,000 jobless claims. This was also less than expectations of 350,000 jobless claims. As more workers gain steady employment, this will enable more would-be home buyers to become active buyers.

May Retail sales also showed slight improvement as they moved from 0.60 percent from April’s 0.10 percent.

According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), the average mortgage rate for a 30year fixed rate mortgage rose from last week’s 3.91 percent to 3.98 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose from last week’s 3.03 percent to 3.10 percent with discount points holding at 0.70 percent.

Whats Coming Up This Week

 

Week Of Mon, Jun 17 2013 – Fri, Jun 21 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Jun 17
10:00 NAHB housing market indx

Jun

45

44

Tue, Jun 18
08:30 Housing starts number mm

May

ml

0.924

0.853

08:30 Building permits: number

May

ml

0.980

1.005

08:30 CPI mm, sa

May

%

0.1

-0.4

08:30 Core CPI mm, sa

May

%

0.2

0.1

08:30 Core CPI yy, nsa

May

%

1.7

1.7

Wed, Jun 19
07:00 Mortgage market index

w/e

670.7

07:00 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

4.15

14:00 FOMC Announcement

n/a

%

0.25

14:00 FOMC Forecasts

n/a

14:30 Bernanke Press Conference

n/a

Thu, Jun 20
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

340

334

08:58 Markit PMI

Jun

52.8

52.3

10:00 Existing home sales

May

ml

5.01

4.97

10:00 Philly Fed Business Index

Jun

-0.2

-5.2

13:00 30-Yr TIPS auction

bl

7.0

 

Although home loan rates are not as low as they were a few months ago, they are still extremely attractive and now is a good time to buy a home.

 

 

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 3, 2013Volatility in the financial markets continued last week.  Tuesday turned out to be one of the worst days for mortgage rates in history.  Consumer confidence was strong, year-over-year home prices rose sharply and the stock market continued to rise.  Mortgage rates ended the week about 1.5 discount points higher.

Rising mortgage rates suggest that home buyers may benefit from considering hybrid adjustable rate mortgages; the average rate for a 5/1 hybrid ARM was 2.66 percent with 0.50 percent in discount points.

Week Of Mon, Jun 3 2013 – Fri, Jun 7 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Jun 3
08:58 Markit Manufacturing PMI

May

51.9

10:00 Construction spending

Apr

%

1.0

-1.7

10:00 ISM Manufacturing

May

50.5

50.7

Tue, Jun 4
08:30 International Trade

Apr

bl

-41.0

-38.8

Wed, Jun 5
07:00 MBA Mortgage market index

w/e

721.4

08:15 ADP National Employment

May

k

160

119

08:30 Productivity Revised

Q1

%

0.7

0.7

08:30 Labor costs Revised

Q1

%

0.5

0.5

10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI

May

53.3

53.1

10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act

May

55.0

55.0

10:00 Factory orders mm

Apr

%

1.5

-4.9

Thu, Jun 6
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

345

354

Fri, Jun 7
08:30 Non-Farm Payrolls

May

k

160

165

08:30 Unemployment rate mm

May

%

7.5

7.5

08:30 Average workweek hrs

May

hr

34.5

34.4

08:30 Average earnings mm

May

%

0.2

0.2

15:00 Consumer credit

Apr

bl

12.50

7.97

Keep prospective, Mortgage rates continue to be at historically low levels and the additional monthly payment resulting from rising rates over the last two weeks on a $250,000 mortgage has changed by less than one tank of gas.

MBS Commentary.

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