What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 12, 2013Mortgage bond prices ended last week a little higher than a the start of the week, resulting in slightly lower mortgage rates.  According to CoreLogic, U.S. home prices increased at their fastest pace since February 2006. Mortgage rates rose incrementally, and the Weekly Jobless Claims report came in lower than the expected 339,000 at 333,000 new jobless claims.

The four week rolling average for new jobless claims decreased by 6250 to 335,000. This was the lowest reading for the four-week rolling average since November 2007.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates brought not-so-good news; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 4.40 percent, while the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 3.43 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose by one basis point to 3.19 percent.

What’s Coming Up

This week’s economic news includes the federal budget for Monday. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will be reported on Tuesday; the Producers Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI will be out on Wednesday.

Economic Calendar, August 12 – August 16, 2013

econ08122013

Mortgage rates remain very attractive compared to historical levels and it is still a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance.

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Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week August 5 2013Mortgage rates were basically flat ahe end of last week.  The last three days of the week provided only a glimpse of market volatility.

The FOMC statement indicated that the Federal Reserve has not set a date for rolling back its quantitative easing program and ADP reported more private sector jobs added than expected.

While weekly jobless claims were fewer than expected, the national unemployment rate remained elevated:

Consumer confidence dropped in July to a reading of 80.3 as compared to a revised reading of 82.1 in June. Higher mortgage rates and stubbornly high unemployment rates likely contributed to a cooling of consumer enthusiasm.

What’s Coming Up This Week

The economic calendar is quiet this week, but will the markets still be volatile, especially with three Treasury bond auctions taking place:

econ08052013

The future is uncertain, continued volatility is likely;  now is a great time to take advantage of mortgage rates at these low levels.

 

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Case Shiller Home Price Index Shows Rising Prices For May 2013The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) released Tuesday presented solid evidence that the housing recovery continued during the month of May.

The Case-Shiller 20-City Index showed increasing home prices for all 20 cities.

Highest Year-Over-Year Gains Included Theses Cities:

  • San Francisco, CA 24.50 percent
  • Las Vegas, NV 23.30 percent
  • Phoenix, AZ 20.60 percent
  • Atlanta, GA 20.10 percent
  • Los Angeles, CA 19.20 percent

In surprising news, Dallas, TX and Denver, CO posted record year-over-year price gains that surpassed their pre-crisis peaks.

Year-over-year home prices in Dallas increased by 7.60 percent and Denver home prices increased by 9.70 percent year-over-year in May.

Home prices grew by 12.20 percent on a year-over year basis in May; this reading fell short of expectations of 12.40 percent, but moved slightly ahead of April’s reading of a 12.10 percent year-over year increase.

The Case-Shiller HPI is based on a three-month rolling year-over-year average of home prices in the cities surveyed.

Cities Post Month-To- Month Price Gains 

On a seasonally-adjusted month-to-month basis, home prices rose by 1.00 percent in May as compared to April. Expectations were for a 1.40 percent increase over April’s reading, which came in at 1.70 percent.

Top Gains From April To May Were Posted By These Cities:

  • San Francisco, CA 4.30 percent
  • Chicago, IL 3.70 percent
  • Atlanta, GA 3.40 percent
  • San Diego, CA 3.10 percent
  • Seattle, WA 3.10 percent

Analysts noted that home prices for two metro areas in Florida surpassed year-over-year gains in Washington, D.C.; this illustrates home values shifting geographically.

Miami home prices posted a month-to gain of 2.00 percent and a year-over-year gain of 14.20 percent.

Tampa, FL home prices posted a month-to-month gain of 1.80 percent on a year-over-year gain of 10.90 percent.

Washington, D.C. home prices gained 2.00 percent month-to-month in May, but only gained 6.50 percent year-over-year.

Rising Mortgage Rates Could Slow Price Momentum

It’s important to understand that the data in the Case-Shiller HPI lags a couple of months behind current market conditions; the latest numbers were compiled prior to mortgage rates spiking. Economists expect that the impact of higher mortgage rates won’t be seen in home prices until fall.

Higher mortgage rates are expected to slow home sales. If the demand for homes falls due to higher mortgage rates, inventories of available homes would expand, which would create competition among home sellers and potentially lead to lower home prices.

For any questions regarding your mortgage rate and buying a home feel free to contact your trusted mortgage professional today.

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Last week brought a mixed bag of economic news.  Mortgage rates rose slightly last week, trading was calm as many were on summer vacations.  It will be worth returning from vacation for this week as lots of items are on the economic calendar.

econcal0729

This week expect lots of rate volatility starting on Tuesday when consumer confidence numbers are released.  Other market moving items on the calendar include GDP, Fed adjournment, Payroll data, unemployment rate and PCE prices.

Keep thing is prospective when thinking about locking a rate.  Rates remain low and it is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week July 22 2013Mortgage rates improved slightly last week., as economic news was a mixed bag with retail sales and housing starts coming in lower than expected, but home builder confidence in housing markets increased.

Weekly jobless claims fell, and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke testified before the Senate, saying that falling gold prices were an indication of increasing confidence in the economy, but that it was “way too soon” to say when the Fed’s quantitative easing program would be reduced.

 

What’s Coming Up

 

Date Time (ET) Statistic For Market Expects
07/22/13 10:00:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jun 5.28M
07/23/13 01:15:00 PM 2Y Treasury Note Auction ‘- ‘-
07/24/13 10:00:00 AM New Home Sales Jun 481K
07/24/13 01:15:00 PM 5Y Treasury Note Auction    
07/25/13 08:30:00 AM Initial Claims 07/20/13 328K
07/25/13 08:30:00 AM Durable Orders Jun 1.50%
07/25/13 08:30:00 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Jun 0.40%
07/25/13 01:15:00 PM 7Y Treasury Note Auction ‘- ‘-
07/26/13 09:55:00 AM Michigan Sentiment – Final Jul 84.2

.

Affordability remains high for home buyers.  Long term it is expected to see home prices and interest rates to rise; it is a good time to buy a home.

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Mortgage rates improved last week.  The Fed’s release of the minutes for the June FOMC meeting was the most noteworthy economic event last week; the minutes repeated the Fed’s recent statement concerning the wind-down of its current monetary easing policy.  The minutes indicated that about half of meeting participants wanted to end the quantitative easing (QE) policy by year end, while “many others” preferred to end the program in 2014.  This split suggests that days are numbered for the Fed’s monthly purchases of bonds.

It remains unknown whether the bond market will continue to build on last weeks improvements or take a turn for the worse this week.  Financial markets and interest rates are expected to remain volatile throughout this busy week.  Fed Chairman Bernake is scheduled to deliver the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins report on monetary policy on Wednesday and Thursday:

 

Time (ET)

Statistic

For

Actual

Market Expects

Prior

08:30:00 AM

Retail Sales

Jun

0.40%

0.70%

0.50%

08:30:00 AM

Retail Sales ex-auto

Jun

0.00%

0.40%

0.30%

08:30:00 AM

CPI

Jun

0.30%

0.10%

08:30:00 AM

Core CPI

Jun

0.20%

0.20%

09:15:00 AM

Industrial Production

Jun

0.30%

0.00%

09:15:00 AM

Capacity Utilization

Jun

77.70%

77.60%

08:30:00 AM

Housing Starts

Jun

958K

914K

08:30:00 AM

Building Permits

Jun

1000K

974K

02:00:00 PM

Fed’s Beige Book

Jul

NA

NA

08:30:00 AM

Initial Claims

07/13/13

348K

360K

10:00:00 AM

Philadelphia Fed

Jul

5.3

12.5

10:00:00 AM

Leading Indicators

Jun

0.30%

0.10%

01:15:00 PM

10-year Treasury TIPS Auction

 

In this volatile rate environment  be careful when making rate decisions and to lock if the numbers make sense as mortgage rates are still at historic lows.

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week July 8 2013

Financial markets remain extremely volatile, a trend that is expected to continue.  Last week mortgage rates were significantly higher than those the at the close of the week prior.

The most meaningful economic reports of the week will be on the last two days of the week with Jobless Claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.  Also of importance this week are the Treasury auctions with this week’s cycle being the more relevant 3, 10, and 30yr terms.  That gives Tuesday a bit more bite, at least in the afternoon (because without the 3yr auction,

Date

Time (ET)

Statistic

For

Market Expects

Prior

07/08/13

03:00:00 PM

Consumer Credit

May

$13.2B

$11.1B

07/09/13

01:15:00 PM

3-year Treasury Note Auction

07/10/13

01:15:00 PM

10-year Treasury Note Auction

07/10/13

02:00:00 PM

FOMC Minutes

06/19/13

07/11/13

08:30:00 AM

Initial Claims

07/06/13

345K

343K

07/11/13

01:15:00 PM

30-year Treasury Bond Auction

07/12/13

08:30:00 AM

PPI

Jun

0.30%

0.50%

07/12/13

08:30:00 AM

Core PPI

Jun

0.10%

0.10%

07/12/13

09:55:00 AM

Mich Sentiment

Jul

84.8

84.1

Mortgage rates remain at historically low levels but are continuing to rise.  Now is a great time to consider purchasing a home.

 

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 1, 2013The past week was active for economic news and mortgage rates.   After a rising significantly earlier in the week mortgage interest rates ended the week almost unchanged from the close of the prior week.

Here’s the scoop on last week’s activity affecting real estate markets:

Tuesday’s Case-Shiller Composite Indices for April demonstrate the momentum of recovery in many housing markets. As of April, national home prices had increased by 12.10 percent as compared to April 2012. April’s reading also exceeded March’s reading of 10.10 percent year-over-year.

FHFA released its home prices report for April and noted that the average price for homes with mortgages owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac increased by 7.40 percent, which slightly surpassed the March reading of 7.20 percent.

The Department of Commerce released New Home Sales for May and reported 476,000 new homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. This exceeded expectations of 453,000 new home sales and also surpassed April’s reading of 454,000 new homes sold.

Wednesday brought the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter of 2013. The GDP grew by 1.80 percent against expectations of 2.40 percent and the previous quarter’s growth, also 2.40 percent.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) brought the days of bargain basement mortgage rates to a halt as average mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved from last week’s 3.93 percent to 4.46 percent. Average rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 3.04 percent 3.50 percent. This was the largest weekly jump in mortgage rates in 26 years.

Home buyers may also consider a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage, which provides an average 5 year fixed rate of 2.74 percent.  The fixed mortgage rate converts to an adjustable rate after five years.

The National Association of REALTORS ® reported that Pending Home Sales in May rose by +6.70 percent to their highest level in 6 years.

Last week ended on a positive note with the Consumer Sentiment Index for June beating expectations of 83.0 and coming in at 84.1. May’s reading was 82.1; higher consumer confidence is likely driving demand for available homes.

Whats Ahead This Week

A holiday-shortened week is ahead, and so is the all-important Jobs Report for June.

Date Time (ET) Statistic For Market Expects Prior
07/01/13 10:00:00 AM Construction Spending May 0.50% 0.40%
07/02/13 10:00:00 AM Factory Orders May 2.00% 1.00%
07/03/13 07:30:00 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jun NA -41.20%
07/03/13 08:15:00 AM ADP Employment Change Jun 150K 135K
07/03/13 08:30:00 AM Initial Claims 06/29/13 348K 346K
07/03/13 08:30:00 AM Trade Balance May -$40.8B -$40.3B
07/03/13 10:00:00 AM ISM Services Jun 54 53.7
07/05/13 08:30:00 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 165K 175K
07/05/13 08:30:00 AM Unemployment Rate Jun 7.60% 7.60%
07/05/13 08:30:00 AM Hourly Earnings Jun 0.20% 0.00%
07/05/13 08:30:00 AM Average Workweek Jun 34.5 34.5

Home mortgage rates remain at  historical low levels.  It is a perfect time to consider a home purchase or refinance.

Paul Cantor

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 24, 2013

Mortgage rates continued their upward trend last week.  Comments by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting caused havoc in financial markets as investors anticipated the potential effects of any rollback of the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing (QE). Chairman Bernanke said that the Fed may begin reducing its $85 billion monthly purchase of Treasury securities and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) toward the end of this year.

Will Mortgage Rates Fall This Week?

Rates have risen significantly over the previous 3 days, following a similar pattern over the previous month.  It is doubtful that rates will drop back to the levels we saw this spring but may ease a little.  Historically speaking mortgage rates are still at rock bottom low levels.

There is a good amount of economic data being released this week that will impact financial markets:

Economic Calendar:

Week Of Mon, Jun 23 2013 – Fri, Jun 27 2013
Time

Event

Period Unit Forecast
Tue, Jun 25
08:30 Durable Goods May

%

3.0

09:00 FHFA Home Price mm

Apr

%

09:00 Case Shiller Home Prices

Apr

%

1.2

10:00 New home sales-units mm May ml 0.463
10:00 Consumer confidence Jun

75.5

13:00 2-Yr Note Auction

bl

35.0

Wed, Jun 26
07:00 MBA Mortgage market index

w/e

07:00 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

08:30 GDP Final

Q1

%

2.4

08:30 GDP deflator Final

Q1

%

1.1

13:00 5yr Treasury Auction

bl

35.0

Thu, Jun 27
08:30 Midwest manufacturing May

08:30 Personal income mm May

%

0.2

08:30 Consumption, adjusted mm May

%

0.3

10:00 Pending sales change mm May

%

0.9

13:00 7-Yr Note Auction

bl

29.0

Fri, Jun 28
09:45 Chicago PMI Jun

56.0

09:55 U.Mich sentiment Jun

82.7

It’s Not Too Late To Lock A Low Rate

Rates have risen from all time lows.   Home affordability is high and studies have estimated millions of home owners would still benefit by refinancing at current rates.  Now is a good time to talk with your loan officer.

 

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What's Ahead This Week - June 17, 2013Last week’s news was relatively quiet with no data significant to the mortgage lending released until Wednesday, when the federal government announced a $138 billion budget deficit for May.

According to the U.S. Treasury this figure is 11 percent higher than for May of 2012, but the federal budget is expected to come in with less than a -$1 trillion deficit for the 2013 fiscal year, which runs from October to September.

The Treasury estimates that the 2013 budget deficit will come in at approximately -$642 billion, well below fiscal 2012’s deficit of -$1.1 trillion. The federal budget has been running deficits over -$1 trillion since 2008.

Employment Market Continues To Strengthen

On Thursday, the Weekly Jobless Claims report brought good news; jobless claims fell from the prior week’s 346,000 jobless claims to 334,000 jobless claims. This was also less than expectations of 350,000 jobless claims. As more workers gain steady employment, this will enable more would-be home buyers to become active buyers.

May Retail sales also showed slight improvement as they moved from 0.60 percent from April’s 0.10 percent.

According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), the average mortgage rate for a 30year fixed rate mortgage rose from last week’s 3.91 percent to 3.98 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose from last week’s 3.03 percent to 3.10 percent with discount points holding at 0.70 percent.

Whats Coming Up This Week

 

Week Of Mon, Jun 17 2013 – Fri, Jun 21 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Jun 17
10:00 NAHB housing market indx

Jun

45

44

Tue, Jun 18
08:30 Housing starts number mm

May

ml

0.924

0.853

08:30 Building permits: number

May

ml

0.980

1.005

08:30 CPI mm, sa

May

%

0.1

-0.4

08:30 Core CPI mm, sa

May

%

0.2

0.1

08:30 Core CPI yy, nsa

May

%

1.7

1.7

Wed, Jun 19
07:00 Mortgage market index

w/e

670.7

07:00 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

4.15

14:00 FOMC Announcement

n/a

%

0.25

14:00 FOMC Forecasts

n/a

14:30 Bernanke Press Conference

n/a

Thu, Jun 20
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

340

334

08:58 Markit PMI

Jun

52.8

52.3

10:00 Existing home sales

May

ml

5.01

4.97

10:00 Philly Fed Business Index

Jun

-0.2

-5.2

13:00 30-Yr TIPS auction

bl

7.0

 

Although home loan rates are not as low as they were a few months ago, they are still extremely attractive and now is a good time to buy a home.

 

 

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